Pass odds (Monte Carlo)
How 5,000 simulated challenges are run, and how to read the tiles and paths.
Your journal is one ordering of your trades. The Monte Carlo replays thousands of other orderings against the challenge rules, so you see your real odds instead of one lucky or unlucky run.
How a simulated challenge runs
- 1
Trades are drawn from your journal
Each simulated day draws trades at random from your own results, at your own pace. A trade can come up several times, exactly like a real future would repeat your typical outcomes. - 2
Every trade is checked against the rules
The balance moves by the trade's R times your risk. Fall to the drawdown floor and the run busts; lose the daily limit and the run busts (hard rule) or stops for the day (soft rule). When a trade's worst point is known, it is checked before its close, so a trade that dipped through a limit breaches even if it ended in profit. - 3
A pass is checked at the end of each day
The run passes a phase when the balance reaches the target and the consistency rule holds. Multi-step accounts start the next phase on a fresh balance. - 4
5,000 runs, 90 trading days per phase
A run still going after 90 trading days in a phase counts as still running. The same settings always give the same answer; the ↻ button on the chart draws a fresh set of runs.
The four tiles
| Tile | How to read it |
|---|---|
| Pass probability | The share of runs that clear every phase. Green from 50%, red under 25%. Multi-step accounts show each phase underneath (P1: 62% · P2: 48%), each counted among the runs that reached it. |
| Bust probability | The share of runs that hit the drawdown or a hard daily limit. When some runs were still going at the horizon, that share shows underneath. |
| Typical trades to pass | Among the runs that pass, the median number of trades it took, with the slow runs (90th percentile) underneath. The ⓘ button explains it with your numbers: half of the winning runs finish within the first figure, 9 out of 10 within the second. |
| Expected spend | The account price divided by the pass rate: what you should expect to pay in attempts before one passes, e.g. ≈ 2.5 attempts at $150. |
The paths chart
The Monte Carlo card draws 60 of the 5,000 runs, trade by trade, in percent of the account. The dashed green line is the target, the dashed red line the drawdown floor at the start (trailing modes chase each path upward from there). Green paths passed, red busted, grey were still running.
Multi-step accounts get one chart per phase. Phase 2 and Phase 3 only show survivors: runs that passed the earlier phase(s), restarting on a fresh balance. If no run made it that far, the card says so.
What it assumes
Trades are drawn independently, as if one result does not influence the next. If your losses tend to cluster, the real ride can be rougher than the simulation: read the bust probability as a floor, not a ceiling. Instant-funding accounts have no evaluation to pass, so they skip the Monte Carlo and go straight to the replay.